法证先锋3

高市早苗政府下调消费税，反给日本民众挖大坑,高市早苗政府下调消费税，反给日本民众挖大坑_我的网站

蒲松龄

一 | Exactly 75 years ago Jawaharlal Nehru, one of the principal leaders of India’s independence movement in the 1930s and 1940s, was sworn in as prime minister of the Dominion of India and raised the national flag at the Red Fort in Delhi. Having brought an end to the colonial rule of the British Empire, the Indian leadership embraced the concept of "non-alignment" and "neutrality" and diversified its ties, seeking new partnerships. At the time, the Soviet Union emerged as a natural ally for the independent Indian state.,Nehru was attracted to Marxism and promoted the idea of evolutionary and inclusive socialism. Back in 1927, the would-be Indian prime minister visited the USSR for the first time together with his wife Kamala, younger sister Krishna, and his father Motilal Nehru, a leader of the Indian National Congress.,The trip was connected with the 10th Anniversary of the Great October Socialist Revolution, which was seen by Nehru and other Indian nationalists in "a very positive light," according to Dr. Anuradha Chenoy, professor of the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University.,The Soviet press extensively covered the Nehrus' visit to Moscow, hailing Motilal and Jawaharlal as prominent leaders of India’s freedom movement. Jawaharlal Nehru was received in the Kremlin by Mikhail Kalinin, chairman of the Central Executive Committee of the USSR. Having wrapped up his journey, the Indian politician wrote a booklet titled "Soviet Russia, some random sketches and impressions" (1928).,"Jawaharlal Nehru was influenced by Marxist and socialist thought to some extent, as he saw the need for state intervention for alleviating poverty, developing infrastructure and for development," says Dr. Chenoy. "He thus advocated and made policies to develop state- or public sector industries and also created a Planning Commission. Independent India's Second Plan was especially modeled around the Soviet planning system.",CC BY 2.0 / Public.Resource.Org / Photo 656 Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru at the mike. 20.7.47 Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru at the mike. 20.7.47 CC BY 2.0 / Public.Resource.Org / Photo 656,USSR Helped India Lay the Groundwork for Industrialization,On January 26, 1950, India became a republic within the Commonwealth of Nations with Jawaharlal Nehru serving as the Republic of India's prime minister until May 27, 1964. During this period, the USSR and India started to deepen their ties, according to Dr. Chenoy.,"Soviet support was crucial for an underdeveloped and newly liberated country like India," the academic explains. "Since India wanted to develop as a 'mixed economy,' that is to have both a state and private sector, Western countries refused them any aid and assistance that India needed. So India turned to the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union assisted India in the creation of new steel plants and several infrastructure industries. They assisted in developing Indian science and technology institutions which laid the base for Indian development in later years.",Dr. Chenoy elaborates that in the 1950s, the USSR helped India lay the groundwork for the country's early industrialization, with the Asian giant then starting to receive Russian defense equipment and military hardware.,CC0 / / Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi (1917-1984) at the National Press Club, Washington, D.C. 1n 1966 Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi (1917-1984) at the National Press Club, Washington, D.C. 1n 1966CC0 / /,Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation,The Indian war with Pakistan in 1971 became a pivotal moment for Indo-Soviet relations, according to the Indian academic. The conflict erupted over the Bangladesh liberation movement in East Pakistan, which was accompanied by killings of the Bengalis – both Muslims and Hindus – by West Pakistani forces led by General Agha Muhammad Yahya Khan in March 1971.,As a result of the violence and instability caused by the onslaught in East Pakistan, an estimated 10 million Bengalis fled to India by May 1971, prompting Delhi to intervene. Judging from documents released in December 2002 by the National Security Archive (NSA), a US non-profit archival institution, US President Richard Nixon and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger did nothing to curtail the West Pakistani repressions against Bengalis and backed General Yahya.,After India stepped in to shield the Bengalis, "not only did the United States publicly pronounce India as the aggressor in the war, but the US sent the nuclear aircraft carrier, USS Enterprise, to the Bay of Bengal, and authorized the transfer of US military supplies to Pakistan, despite the apparent illegality of doing so," according to the non-profit.,Moscow's help came in handy at the time: in August 1971, India and the USSR concluded the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation that specified mutual strategic cooperation between the countries. The treaty sent a powerful signal to the US and its allies. Eventually, the conflict ended on December 16, 1971 with the military forces of West Pakistan that were in Bangladesh surrendering.,"The Indian war with Pakistan on the issue of the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971 was a very special moment of Soviet support since the US wanted to help its ally Pakistan," says Dr. Chenoy. "After this, the Treaty of Friendship signed between India and the USSR was very holistic and provided India with much technological and defense support. Since then the friendship has increased.",© Photo : Indian PM OfficeModi Putin MeetModi Putin Meet© Photo : Indian PM Office,India's Strategic Autonomy,The historic Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation was renewed for another 20 years on August 8, 1991. After the collapse of the USSR, Moscow and New Delhi replaced the accords with the 20-year Treaty of Indo-Russian Friendship and Cooperation in January 1993.,Although the dissolution of the USSR resulted in a temporary chill in Russo-Indian economic and trade relations, they were soon reshuffled and are continuing to develop regardless of sanctions imposed by the West, according to Dr. Chenoy.,Since the declaration of independence back in 1947, India has managed to achieve significant strategic autonomy. The country has been maintaining ties with various global powers in accordance with its own strategic plans.,Thus, in June 2022, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar made it clear at the GlobeSec 2022 Bratislava Forum that India would not copycat the West's anti-Russia policies in the wake of Moscow's special operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine. He stressed that “the world cannot be that Euro-centric as it used to be in the past,” adding that India, which is one-fifth of the world’s population and the fifth-largest economy will be guided by its national interests in the first place.。　　高市早苗政府，最近给日本经济开了一剂减税“药方”。　　为了应对日本飙升的物价、安抚民生，近日，高市早苗内阁正式敲定食品消费税减税基本方针，决定从2027年4月起的两年内，将食品饮料消费税率从8%降至1%。　　这是日本自1989年开征消费税以来首次下调税率。但据日本共同社8月22至23日的全国电话调查数据，71.7%的受访者对减税后的财政状况表示担忧。

二 | 随之而来的，高市内阁支持率跌至50.2%，创上台以来最低纪录。　　减税应该是惠及民生的好事。

三 | 但高市早苗的减税，为何却让日本民众怕了？　　因为减税后的日子，对日本民众来说是真的不好过。

四 | 　　如今，日本正面临大规模食品“涨价潮”，日本一家数据公司的最新调查显示，7月日本市场有2269种食品涨价。

五 | 其中，面包类价格涨幅为3%至9%，方便面类涨幅为4%至11%，香肠、罐头等加工食品涨幅为2%至30%。　　这意味着，减税省下来的那点钱，基本跑不赢飞涨的物价。　　消费者省不了钱，普通餐饮店也可能因为减税亏本，甚至倒闭。　　按照高市的减税方案，外卖及便利店便当、熟食等食品将从原本8%的税率改为1%的低税率，而餐厅堂食则维持10%不变。

六 | 　　放到最终的消费上，就是点同样的菜品，外卖比堂食的税要便宜九成，于是将会有更多人选择打包带走而不是坐下堂食，但人工、房租、水电这些固定成本却一分不少。　　而且餐馆进货时，采购食材、调味品、包装盒大多要按普通商品10%的标准税率缴税，卖出去的外带便当却只能按1%计税。这9个点的税差意味着成本不变，餐馆税金垫付的压力增大，现金流会被两头挤压。　　据日本广播协会报道，有餐饮店老板表示：“有些顾客可能会觉得外带更好，这可能导致堂食人数减少，我们必须想办法应对可能出现的客流量下降。”还有餐饮店主直言担忧：“可能大多数餐饮店都要倒闭了”。

七 | 　　如此减税，不但没减出普惠，反而制造了新的不公平。　　这还不是最令日本民众感到担忧的。日本民众更想知道，减税之后，日本的钱从哪来？　　据日本媒体测算，减税两年将造成近10万亿日元的税收损失，年均约5万亿。

八 | 而消费税是日本养老金、医保等社会保障制度的“地基财源”，占日本税收约三分之一。　　如今减税导致社保财源被挖出一个大窟窿，未来养老金能不能按时发、看病能不能报销、老人护理还能不能保障……这些都成了悬在日本人头上的问号。　　虽然高市强调“不会依赖发行特例公债（赤字国债）”来凑钱，但这话恰恰暴露了这件事最核心的矛盾：减税造成了如此大的财政窟窿，如果真不借债，钱从哪来？　　要知道，日本早已是全球债务负担最重的国家之一，政府债务规模约是其GDP的两倍。　　市场最怕的就是政府为了填减税的坑而大肆发债。因为债发多了，国债就会被抛售、收益率就会飙升。国债利率一涨，企业贷款利率、房贷利率全跟着涨，最终买单的还是普通老百姓。　　高市早苗的这场减税闹剧，本质上是一场以“惠民”为包装的政治赌博。她赌的是明年9月自民党总裁选举时能多拿些政治筹码，因为表面上看，减税有助于提升民众对政府的好感度。　　只不过明眼人都能看出来，看似安抚民心的“良方”，实则是一剂压榨民众未来的“毒药”。短期的政治红利，换来的是日本社会长久的经济阵痛，最终只会让全体日本民众为高市内阁的政治投机买单。